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Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q2 2018

Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q2 2018

Publishing Date : Oct, 2018

License Type :
 

Report Code : 1315217

No of Pages : 79

Synopsis
Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q2 2018

Summary

Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Scope

- Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. The Philippines, Bhutan and Turkmenistan registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in japan, Malaysia and Indonesia increased in Q2 2018 over the last update.
- Europe is the lowest risk region in the world. Risk score in the region marginally increased to 32.8 out of 100 in Q2 2018 from 32.7 in Q1 2018 on the back of rising political and economic tensions. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Moldova, Bulgaria and Ukraine whereas overall risk increased in Cyprus, Bosnia, and Croatia in GCRI Q2 2018 update.
- The risk score of the Americas increased marginally to 42.7 out of 100 in Q2 2018 as compared to 42.6 in Q1 2018. Panama, Uruguay and Bolivia recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in Costa Rica and Argentina increased in Q2 2018
- The Middle East and African regions witnessed an increase in risk score in Q2 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risks. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Kuwait, Qatar and Senegal whereas overall risk increased in Egypt, Oman, and Bahrain in GCRI Q2 2018 update.

Reasons to buy

- The sixth update version of GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q2 2018 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Sweden and Norway.
- 30 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 35 countries in the low risk zone, 36 countries under manageable risk, 28 countries under high risk and seven countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q2 2018.

Geographical Area
Global
Index
Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 4
1.2 List of Figures 4
2 Flashback (January to September 2018) 6
3 Key Events: October - December 2018 7
4 Global Overview - Summary 8
4.1 Global growth expected to moderate in 2019 8
4.2 Global Overview - Key Highlights 10
5 GCRI - Country Ranking 12
6 GCRI: Global Landscape 2018 14
7 Regional Analysis 15
7.1 Asia Pacific 15
7.1.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 15
7.1.2 Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights 16
7.1.3 Political Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 18
7.1.4 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 19
7.1.5 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific 21
7.1.6 Social Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 23
7.1.7 Technology Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 24
7.1.8 Legal Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 25
7.1.9 Environment Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 26
7.2 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 27
7.3 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 28
7.4 Europe Region 29
7.4.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 29
7.4.2 Europe - Risk Highlights 30
7.4.3 Political Outlook: Europe Region 32
7.4.4 Economic Outlook: Europe 34
7.4.5 Social Outlook: Europe 38
7.4.6 Technology Outlook: Europe Region 39
7.4.7 Legal Outlook: Europe 40
7.4.8 Environment Outlook: Europe Region 41
7.5 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 42
7.6 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 43
7.7 Americas 44
7.7.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 44
7.7.2 Americas - Risk Highlights 45
7.7.3 Political Outlook: Americas 47
7.7.4 Economic Outlook: Americas 49
7.7.5 Economic Outlook: Americas 51
7.7.6 Social Outlook: Americas 53
7.7.7 Technological Outlook: Americas 54
7.7.8 Legal Outlook: Americas 55
7.7.9 Environment Outlook: Americas 56
7.8 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 57
7.9 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 58
7.10 Middle East and Africa 59
7.10.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 59
7.10.2 Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights 60
7.10.3 Political Outlook: Middle East and Africa 62
7.10.4 Economic Outlook: Middle East and Africa 64
7.10.5 Social Outlook: Middle East and Africa 66
7.10.6 Technological Outlook: Middle East and Africa 67
7.10.7 Legal Outlook: Middle East and Africa 68
7.10.8 Environment Outlook: Middle East and Africa 69
7.11 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 70
7.12 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 71
8 Methodology and Appendix 72
8.1 Country Ranking and Scores 72
8.1.1 Europe 72
8.1.2 Americas 73
8.1.3 Asia Pacific 74
8.1.4 Middle East and Africa 75
8.2 GCRI - Methodology and Sources 76
8.2.1 Snapshot of Methodology 76
8.2.2 Secondary sources 77
8.3 Contact Us 79
8.4 Disclaimer 79
List of Tables
List of Tables
Table 1: Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights 17
Table 2: Key Economic Variables - Asia-Pacific 21
Table 3: Europe - Risk Highlights 31
Table 4: Key Economic Variables - Europe Region 35
Table 5: Americas - Risk Highlights 46
Table 6: Key Economic Variables - Americas 50
Table 7: Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights 61
Table 8: Key Economic Variables 65
Table 9: GCRI - Methodology and Sources 78

List of Figures
List of Figures
Figure 1: Flashback (January to September 2018) 6
Figure 2: Key Events: October - December 2018 7
Figure 3: Global Growth and Inflation 8
Figure 4: Risk movement Q4 2016 to Q2 2018 9
Figure 5: GCRI - Global Risk Heat Map 12
Figure 6: Global Risk Score - Q2 2018 13
Figure 7: Global Risk - At a Glance 14
Figure 8: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 15
Figure 9: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 16
Figure 10: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018 17
Figure 11: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific 18
Figure 12: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific 18
Figure 13: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific 19
Figure 14: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific 20
Figure 15: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Asia-Pacific Nations 21
Figure 16: Key Regional Indices 22
Figure 17: China’s Debt Reached 261.2% of GDP in Q1 2018 22
Figure 18: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific 23
Figure 19: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific 23
Figure 20: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific 24
Figure 21: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific 24
Figure 22: Nations with lowest legal risk in Asia-Pacific 25
Figure 23: Nations with highest legal risk in Asia-Pacific 25
Figure 24: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific 26
Figure 25: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific 26
Figure 26: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 29
Figure 27: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 30
Figure 28: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018 31
Figure 29: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Europe 32
Figure 30: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Europe 32
Figure 31: Euro Sentiments In Europe, May 2018 33
Figure 32: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Europe 34
Figure 33: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Europe 34
Figure 34: Market Sentiments in Euro Area 35
Figure 35: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key European Nation 36
Figure 36: Key Regional Indices 36
Figure 37: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Europe 38
Figure 38: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Europe 38
Figure 39: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Europe 39
Figure 40: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Europe 39
Figure 41: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Europe 40
Figure 42: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Europe 40
Figure 43: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Europe 41
Figure 44: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Europe 41
Figure 45: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 44
Figure 46: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 45
Figure 47: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018 46
Figure 48: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Americas 47
Figure 49: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Americas 47
Figure 50: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Americas 49
Figure 51: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Americas 49
Figure 52: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key American Nations 50
Figure 53: Key Regional Indices 52
Figure 54: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Americas 53
Figure 55: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Americas 53
Figure 56: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Americas 54
Figure 57: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Americas 54
Figure 58: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Americas 55
Figure 59: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Americas 55
Figure 60: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Americas 56
Figure 61: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Americas 56
Figure 62: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 59
Figure 63: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2017 60
Figure 64: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018 61
Figure 65: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in MEA 62
Figure 66: Nations with Highest Political Risk in MEA 62
Figure 67: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in MEA 64
Figure 68: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in MEA 64
Figure 69: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Nations in MEA 65
Figure 70: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in MEA 66
Figure 71: Nations with Highest Social Risk in MEA 66
Figure 72: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in MEA 67
Figure 73: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in MEA 67
Figure 74: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in MEA 68
Figure 75: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in MEA 68
Figure 76: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in MEA 69
Figure 77: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in MEA 69
Figure 78: Country Ranking and Scores, Europe 72
Figure 79: Country Ranking and Scores, Americas 73
Figure 80: Country Ranking and Scores, Asia Pacific 74
Figure 81: Country Ranking and Scores, Middle East and Africa 75
Figure 82: Broad Categories and Weights Behind the Index 77

Published By : GlobalData